Verified excerpt published on July 16, 2025
Bitcoin: Calm Amid the Chaos—Volatility Sinks to All-Time Lows
Bitcoin's historically low volatility (33% vs. its 59% 5-year average for the rolling 3 month volatility metric) ranks in the 2nd percentile on both a 5-year look back and a 12 year look back.
It’s an outlier. But that is not the signal.
The signal is that its volatility has been tending lower over any 5 year period and since inception, while US equity and bond vol has been tending higher.
The second signal about Bitcoin's 3 month volatility is that it is occurring as macro assets struggle to perform (Oil, US Treasuries, USD)
So business as usual on the long term trend of lower volatility, and today, the current volatility holds dispositive info (signal) as it's 2% percentile rank is the lowest of any major asset including all Magnificent 7 names.
So it is tending lower, and today’s level is historically low, despite a very turbulent 1H 2025.
Clearly...
Mark Connors
Head of Global Macro Strategy
Mark’s 35 years of markets experience includes time as a multi-asset portfolio and risk management practitioner at several hedge funds and as head of a Markets Strategy team at Credit Suisse. This cross discipline approach helped inform the creation of his top down/ bottom-up global macro framework and accounts for his advocacy for Bitcoin's strategic importance for institutional investors. As Director of Research at 3iQ during the 2022-23 crypto winter and beyond, Mark developed proprietary research and insights into digital assets, building on his work as Global Head of Portfolio & Risk Advisory at Credit Suisse and risk management roles at Diamondback Capital and Strategic Value Partners. Mark’s work now focuses on addressing systemic financial challenges such as debt, demographics, and deficits, and he is a vocal proponent of Bitcoin's potential to counter economic debasement. The practical nature of his work has been leveraged to drive bespoke University programs and is often referenced by media outlets including Reuters, Bloomberg, Unchained, CoinDesk and the FT.